Texas Politics Enters a New and Unpredictable Era

AUSTIN — For decades, Texas politics followed a dependable formula: Republicans dominated statewide elections, Democrats controlled the largest cities, and national campaigns viewed the state primarily as a reliable source of Republican electoral votes.

In 2026, that formula is being tested.

Texas remains firmly Republican at the state level, but November's elections are unfolding amid unusual political crosscurrents involving redistricting, property taxes, immigration, public education and growing concern over the cost of living. The result is a political environment in which Republicans remain favored but Democrats increasingly believe opportunities exist.

Few figures have shaped modern Texas politics more than Gov. Greg Abbott. Now seeking a fourth term, Abbott has built his administration around border security, economic development, tax relief and conservative social policies. More recently, he has turned attention toward improving public schools after winning a long battle to establish a private-school voucher program.

Yet Texans remain divided over the state's direction.

A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey earlier this year found voters particularly dissatisfied with political corruption and ethics, health care, property taxes, housing and public education. Border security remained one of the areas where state leaders received comparatively stronger marks.

Property taxes have become especially potent. Attorney General Ken Paxton announced Monday that another 116 Texas municipalities would be prohibited from increasing property-tax rates because they failed to meet state audit requirements, illustrating how aggressively Republican leaders are pursuing the issue.

But perhaps no issue has made Texas more important nationally than redistricting.

Republicans redrew the state's congressional map in 2025 after President Donald Trump pushed for new boundaries that could help the GOP protect its House majority. The Supreme Court ultimately allowed the Republican-favored map to be used for the 2026 elections.

The strategy was initially expected to provide Republicans as many as five additional congressional seats. That outcome now appears less certain. Changing political attitudes, particularly among Latino voters, have made several South Texas districts more competitive than Republicans anticipated.

Texas is also attracting national attention because of Democratic enthusiasm. Primary participation among Texas Democrats increased significantly this year, part of a broader surge occurring in several states. Whether that enthusiasm carries into November remains uncertain.

For Republicans, Texas represents something that must be protected. For Democrats, it remains the ultimate political prize: a rapidly growing state with 40 electoral votes and enormous influence over Congress and presidential politics.

Texas has been described as a future battleground for years without quite becoming one.

In 2026, the more important question may not be whether Texas suddenly turns blue. It is whether the state's once-predictable political landscape is becoming considerably less predictable.