Is the World Drifting Toward a U.S.-China Showdown Over Taiwan?

As Taiwan rehearses for invasion and China increases military pressure around the island, a decades-old dispute is becoming one of the world's most dangerous geopolitical flashpoints.

TAIPEI, Taiwan — For 10 days this month, Taiwan practiced for a war it desperately hopes will never come.

Soldiers moved through cities and coastal positions. Reservists reported for duty. Fighter bases practiced operating after simulated attacks. Civilians participated in air-raid exercises. Authorities even deliberately slowed mobile internet service in parts of the island, testing how Taiwan might function if communications were disrupted during an attack.

The annual Han Kuang military exercises, which concluded Aug. 14, have become increasingly realistic as Taiwan prepares for what its government considers an increasingly serious possibility: a Chinese blockade or invasion.

China's response was dismissive. Beijing's Defense Ministry called the exercises a “wasteful charade,” accused Taiwan's government of creating panic and warned that the People's Liberation Army remained prepared to counter Taiwanese separatism and foreign interference.

Behind the military rhetoric is a question with consequences far beyond the 110-mile-wide Taiwan Strait:

Could Taiwan eventually trigger a military confrontation between China and the United States?

Preparing for the Worst

China considers Taiwan part of its territory and has never renounced the use of force to bring the democratically governed island under its control. Taiwan's government rejects Beijing's sovereignty claims and maintains that the island's future must be decided by its people.

For decades, that disagreement existed within an uneasy status quo. Increasingly, however, military activity is becoming part of everyday life.

Chinese warplanes and naval vessels routinely operate around Taiwan. In July, China announced live-fire exercises in the Taiwan Strait, while Taiwan has reported an upward trend in Chinese naval movements during the region's summer military exercise season.

Taiwan, meanwhile, is changing the way it prepares for war.

This year's Han Kuang exercises mobilized roughly 20,000 reservists and placed greater emphasis on prolonged combat, communications disruptions, coastal defense and the ability of civilian institutions to continue operating during an attack.

Military planners also rehearsed scenarios in which China could disguise preparations for an invasion as routine military exercises — forcing Taiwan to determine when drills had become the opening stages of an actual war. Taiwan additionally tested whether weapons production could be dispersed and maintained while under attack.

Those scenarios illustrate one of Taiwan's greatest problems: Beijing might not begin a conflict with an obvious amphibious invasion.

China could instead employ cyberattacks, economic pressure, disinformation, missile strikes or a naval blockade designed to isolate the island.

America's Dilemma

The United States does not maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, but Washington is Taiwan's most important international supporter and arms supplier.

American policy has long maintained deliberate uncertainty about precisely how Washington would respond to a Chinese attack. That ambiguity is intended to discourage Beijing from invading while simultaneously discouraging Taiwan from formally declaring independence.

But China's expanding military capabilities are making that balancing act increasingly difficult.

A conflict over Taiwan could quickly become far larger than a battle for one island. American military facilities in Japan and elsewhere in the Pacific could become strategically important, potentially drawing U.S. forces directly into combat with China.

The economic consequences could be equally severe. Taiwan sits near some of the world's busiest shipping routes and occupies a critical position in the global semiconductor industry. A prolonged blockade or war could disrupt technology manufacturing and international trade on a scale felt thousands of miles from the battlefield.

None of this means war is inevitable.

China continues to say it seeks peaceful reunification, even while refusing to rule out force. Taiwan says its military preparations are intended to prevent war by convincing Beijing that an invasion would be extraordinarily costly.

That is the paradox now unfolding across the Taiwan Strait.

China is strengthening its ability to seize Taiwan. Taiwan is strengthening its ability to resist. And the United States continues strengthening a partner it hopes it will never have to defend in combat.

Each side argues that military preparedness preserves peace.

The danger is that someday, one of them may decide the other side has prepared too much.